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Look at the picture: The increased confidence of Japan's large-scale manufacturing industry indicates that the economic development is in line with the Bank of Japan's forecast. Before the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week, the confidence of Japan's large-scale manufacturing industry has increased. According to the quarterly short-term report released by the Bank of Japan on Friday, the short-term survey index of Japan's large manufacturing industry rose slightly to 14 in December, with an estimated 13. The short-term survey index of large non-manufacturing industry decreased slightly from 34 to 33. Small businesses' confidence in manufacturing and service industries has also improved, although the outlook has slightly weakened or remained unchanged. The short-term report has attracted the attention of the Bank of Japan and is the last batch of major domestic data that will be carefully studied before the interest rate decision on December 19. This result shows that Japan's economic development is in line with the forecast of the Bank of Japan and is a condition for further interest rate hike. Compared with December, economists are more inclined to expect the Bank of Japan to take action in January next year, but still believe that the risk of raising interest rates next week is high.Microsoft: The latest small language model PHI-4, which is specially used for complex reasoning, is introduced.Real estate stocks fluctuated lower, with Gorgeous Family, Qixia Construction, Everbright Jiabao and Tiandiyuan falling more than 5%, while urban construction development and Chongqing development followed suit.

Guotai Junan: Pay attention to the investment opportunities in liquor, beverages, popular food and other fields. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that 1) Liquor: Determine ahead of growth, pay attention to the wholesale price trend and the orientation of head liquor enterprises. The report end of liquor industry began to enter the downward period in the second quarter of 2024, and the bottom shock is expected in the first half of 2025. Sales are slowing down, inventory is passively rising, and the approval price is expected to be relatively weak. The Spring Festival in 2025 will experience a stress test period. In terms of price, real estate liquor > high-end > secondary high-end. After this round of adjustment, real estate liquor is expected to recover first, followed by high-end liquor, and the secondary high-end liquor is expected to recover for a long period. 2) Beer and beverage: the performance of beer is divided and the beverage structure is prosperous. In the third quarter of 2024, the number of trips in the summer peak season was stronger than the price, and the number of trips maintained a recovery and growth trend. The beverages with low-cost/high-frequency consumption characteristics benefited significantly and the demand resilience was prominent; The regional brand of beer performance differentiation is better than the national brand, and it is expected to be repaired under the low expectation in 2025. It is expected that the passive upgrading trend and regional brand advantages will continue. 3) Popular food: marginal improvement and structural differentiation. Mass food improved marginally in the third quarter, with obvious structural differentiation. The cost reduction is gradually reflected, low cost and low price become the trend, the advantages of high cost-effective products are highlighted, and the key layout is two ends; The valuation premium of growth stocks has been significantly digested, focusing on growth track snacks, and paying attention to adjusted condiments, catering supply chain and low valuation oversold and high dividend targets.Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan: Short-term data show that enterprises have a strong willingness to invest.The first-phase factory construction project of Aidi Precision (Thailand) started. According to Aidi Precision, in order to better lay out the global market, on December 12, Aidi Precision's first overseas manufacturing factory, Aidi Precision (Thailand), officially started construction. The construction project of Aidi Precision (Thailand) Factory, with a total investment of 35 million US dollars, covers an area of 122 mu and a workshop area of about 60,000 square meters. It will be engaged in the production, manufacture and sales of high-end hydraulic components and hydraulic fittings for construction machinery. The first phase of the project is scheduled to be completed and put into operation in October 2025.

The scale of A500-related funds exceeded 240 billion yuan, and the scale of CSI A500ETF leader (563,800) jumped to the first place in Shanghai. On December 12, the total scale of funds tracking CSI A500 index reached 242.1 billion yuan, which was the fastest index in the history of A-share. In addition, the CSI A500 Index also contributed about one third of the increase in scale index funds since September. Among them, CSI A500ETF leader (563800) has attracted the most gold since its listing on November 18th, with a net inflow of 14.2 billion yuan, and its latest scale has exceeded 16.5 billion yuan, ranking first in Shanghai.Bestak: Actively deploy the C-end smart product business. At present, it has not cooperated with Bean Bag AI. Bestak said at the performance briefing on December 12 that on the one hand, the company actively deployed the C-end smart product business, exerted its own brand, promoted business expansion with category innovation, and continuously enhanced the strategic value of the new development pattern. On the other hand, the company invested in the layout of cross-border e-commerce companies, and joined hands with them to promote the series of inflator products to the sea, strengthen the cross-border e-commerce coordination strategy, and vigorously explore the potential market. In addition, the company said that the company has not cooperated with Bean Bag AI at present.The Philippine side's provocation and China's counter-measures will be one step stronger. The Philippine Coast Guard said that China has recently launched "aggressive actions" against Philippine fishing boats heading for the reef. Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, said today that the Philippine side likes to take a boat full of journalists wherever it goes, whether it is sailing or shipping, but the key is not to see who has more journalists, but to see who is more reasonable and legal. China Nansha Islands and Huangyan Island have never been included in the territory of the Philippines, which is determined by a series of international treaties. The Philippines is well aware of this. China's attitude is clear and definite: one point for provocation and one step for counter-attack; If you are stubborn, you will be with me to the end.